Across the European continent, approximately 30 million hectares of agricultural land have been abandoned over the past three decades as rural populations decline and farming becomes economically unviable in marginal areas. A growing body of economic analysis suggests that strategically rewilding portions of this land could generate returns that exceed those of continued agricultural use, through carbon sequestration payments, ecosystem service valuations, and nature-based tourism revenue.
The Abandonment Landscape
The phenomenon of farmland abandonment is concentrated in southern and eastern Europe, with Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Romania, and the Baltic states experiencing the most significant declines in cultivated area. Demographic shifts, including the migration of younger populations to urban centers, have left many rural communities without the labor force to maintain traditional farming operations.
In many cases, abandoned land enters a state of passive rewilding, with natural vegetation succession occurring without deliberate management. However, ecologists argue that active rewilding interventions, including the reintroduction of native herbivores and targeted habitat restoration, can accelerate ecological recovery and generate greater biodiversity and carbon storage benefits.
Carbon Economics
The financial case for rewilding rests substantially on carbon market dynamics. Natural forest regeneration on abandoned farmland can sequester between 3 and 8 metric tons of CO2 per hectare annually during the first 30 years of growth, depending on climate zone and soil conditions. At current EU carbon prices near $60 per ton, this translates to potential annual revenue of $180 to $480 per hectare.
For comparison, marginal agricultural land in the affected regions typically generates net farm income of $50 to $200 per hectare, often supplemented by EU Common Agricultural Policy subsidies. When carbon payments are combined with biodiversity credits and water quality service payments, the economic balance increasingly favors ecological restoration over continued farming on the least productive land.
The Rewilding Europe Model
The nonprofit organization Rewilding Europe has established demonstration projects across eight European landscapes, encompassing more than one million hectares. Their approach combines passive natural regeneration with strategic species reintroductions, including European bison, Iberian lynx, and wild horses, to restore ecological processes that drive habitat diversity.
Economic monitoring of these projects shows that nature-based tourism in rewilded areas generates between $500 and $1,200 per hectare annually in regions with adequate visitor infrastructure. In Portugal’s Greater Coa Valley, where rewilding has been underway since 2014, local tourism employment has increased by 35 percent, partially offsetting job losses from agricultural decline.
Political and Social Barriers
Despite favorable economics, rewilding faces significant political resistance. Farming communities view land abandonment as a threat to cultural identity, and agricultural lobbies have successfully maintained subsidy structures that incentivize continued cultivation even on marginal land. The EU’s Common Agricultural Policy continues to allocate roughly 70 percent of its $60 billion annual budget to direct payments linked to farmed area, creating a powerful financial incentive against rewilding.
Reform proposals that would redirect CAP funding toward ecosystem service payments have gained traction in policy discussions but face opposition from member states with large agricultural sectors. The economic evidence suggests that such a reallocation would generate greater public value per euro spent, but translating that evidence into political action remains the central challenge.
The rewilding question ultimately asks whether European land use policy can evolve to match ecological and economic realities, or whether political inertia will continue to subsidize declining agricultural production at the expense of potentially greater environmental and economic returns.
